Bird Migration Forecasts for Military Air Operations

Book excerpt: This report presents results and discusses the adequacy of a forecast system developed for predicting the density of bird migration near Canadian Forces Base Cold Lake in Alberta. The system was developed for use in reducing the number of collisions between birds and aircraft. Migration forecasts were based on known migration density patterns, known correlations between weather and migration density, and the local weather forecast. During spring and fall 1970, routine forecasts of hourly densities of night-time migration were presented at pilot briefings for night flying, and the forecasts were subsequently checked against actual densities obtained from time-lapse films and surveillance radar. Prediction accuracies are given for both spring and fall seasons and their degree of accuracy for military flight planning is noted.