Averting Crisis in Ukraine

Book excerpt: This Council Special Report, commissioned by CFR's Center for Preventive Action, takes all these issues into account and examines the many challenges facing Ukraine. The report comprehensively analyzes the country's difficulties, related to both domestic conditions -- for example, fractious politics and deeply divided public opinion -- and foreign policy -- for example, issues related to the Black Sea Fleet and Ukrainian and European dependence on Russia's natural gas. The report then recommends ways for the United States to encourage Ukraine on a path of stability and integration with the West. It proposes measures to bolster high-level dialogue between Washington and Kiev, foster effective governance in Ukraine, and reduce Ukraine's susceptibility to Russian pressure. On the crucial NATO question, the report urges the United States to support continued Ukrainian integration with the alliance, though it recommends waiting to back concrete steps toward membership until Kiev achieves consensus on this point. One need not agree with this judgment to find Pifer's analysis of value. Averting Crisis in Ukraine takes a clear-eyed look at the issues that could cause instability -- or worse -- in Ukraine. But it also recommends practical steps that could increase the prospect that Ukraine will enjoy a prosperous, democratic, and independent future.