Projections of Education Statistics to 2008

Book excerpt: This document is the 27th report in a series begun in 1964. It provides revisions to projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2007" and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2008. The report also includes projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2008 at the state level. These projections reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census with the incorporation of 1996 estimates and latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. A methodology section describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national projections, which are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives based on different assumptions about growth paths. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase from 51.4 million in 1996 to 54.5 million in 2006, but then total enrollment is projected to decrease to 54.3 million by the year 2008. Higher education is projected to increase from an estimated 14.3 million in 1996 to 16.1 million by 2008. Increases are also projected for high school graduates, the number of bachelor's degrees, the number of classroom teachers, expenditures per pupil, and teacher salaries. Data are presented in 71 figures and 52 tables, with an additional 38 tables in 4 technical appendixes. A glossary and discussion of data sources are included in the technical appendixes. (SLD)