Kaalkut

Book excerpt: Wars between nations don’t start based on a single incident nor are they fought by just the combatants alone. Starting a war in the shadow of a nuclear umbrella is something that no responsible nation state will consider lightly. Yet, Pakistan has done it once in 1999 with India and its biggest ally China is virtually on the same path. Yet it has the sense to stop from pushing too hard and most such provocations fizzle out in time. But what happens if things don’t go as expected? Any wild card like a rogue general, a stronger than usual Indian response by a hawkish regime or any other factor can quickly escalate the minor border clashes to a full-fledged war leading to a nuclear exchange. This book explores these possibilities in two parts. The first one covers the incidents of statecraft, spycraft, provocations, terrorism and perception management which are more or less routine matters for most nations. The last few chapters cover a two-front war involving India on one side and Pakistan and China on the other and how it could go considering each side has nuclear weapons. The warfare has been described keeping current capabilities and ORBAT (Order Of Battle) of all sides in mind. It is of course not 100% accurate, but close enough for the purpose. Wars between nations don’t start based on a single incident nor are they fought by just the combatants alone. Starting a war in the shadow of a nuclear umbrella is something that no responsible nation state will consider lightly. Yet, Pakistan has done it once in 1999 with India and its biggest ally China is virtually on the same path. Yet it has the sense to stop from pushing too hard and most such provocations fizzle out in time. But what happens if things don’t go as expected? Any wild card like a rogue general, a stronger than usual Indian response by a hawkish regime or any other factor can quickly escalate the minor border clashes to a full-fledged war leading to a nuclear exchange. This book explores these possibilities in two parts. The first one covers the incidents of statecraft, spycraft, provocations, terrorism and perception management which are more or less routine matters for most nations. The last few chapters cover a two-front war involving India on one side and Pakistan and China on the other and how it could go considering each side has nuclear weapons. The warfare has been described keeping current capabilities and ORBAT (Order Of Battle) of all sides in mind. It is of course not 100% accurate, but close enough for the purpose.