Community Analysis and Planning Techniques

Book excerpt: This book introduces and describes four techniques, which are at the core of professional practice and education: The first technique , curve-fitting/extrapolation, projects an area' s population, employment, or other characteristics by identifying and extending historical trends. The second technique, the cohort-component technique, projects an area' s population by dividing it into a uniform set of population subgroups or cohorts and applying the three components of population change-mortality, fertility, and migration-to each cohort. The third technique, the economic base technique, projects local economic change by dividing a local economy into basic and nonbasic sectors and by focusing analytic attention on the basic sector. The fourth technique, the shift-share technique, projects an area's economic activity by relating it to the activity of the state or nation in which it is located.