Statistical Diagnostic Modeling of Marine Fog Using Model Output Parameters

Book excerpt: Diagnostic model output parameters, provided by the Fleet Numerical Weather Central, Monterey, Calif. (FNWC), and the marine fog frequency climatology developed at the Naval Postgraduate School, are statistically processed in context with marine surface synoptic ship reports in order to develop a linear regression scheme to model distribution of marine fog. The study area includes a large section of the North Pacific Ocean (from 30-60N) at 0000 GMT, 1-30 July 1976. The diagnostic capabilities of the regression equations are analyzed through the use of three verification scoring systems. Improvement over climatology and FNWC's operational fog probability program (FTER), is demonstrated. Selective mappings of the regression equation outputs and categorized observations are intercompared with the sea-level pressure analysis; FTER; and the evaporative heat flux--the most significant predictor parameter.