A practical guide to outguessing everything, from multiple-choice tests to the office football pool to the stock market. People are predictable even when they t

Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastroph

A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these m

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thi

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR